UK box office predictions w/c 18th Mar: How did we do?
While we knew that Captain Marvel would reign supreme, Fisherman’s Friends sailed to second place and blew the rest of our predictions out of the water! We’ll remember next time that when the British have had enough of superheroes, it’s shanty singing fishermen all the way!
One other thing that threw our predictions a little askew was Fighting with My Family’s unexpected crash down the charts. We thought that it would slip from second to third, but it’s actually tumbled from second to fifth. This is a steep drop, and it may signal that interest is quickly waining in the wrestling comedy-drama.
Otherwise, we were slightly puzzled to see that Miszmasz Czyli Kogel Mogel 3 appeared in ninth place for the weekend of March 15-17, as according to Launching Films (which is run by the Film Distributors’ Association) it wasn’t due to released until March 18th!
There were no other surprises, with the rest of our predictions broadly only being one out because of the strong performance of Fisherman’s Friends (which didn’t seem to have as many screenings during a day as its competitors so those screenings must have been fairly packed!). Having said that, we predicted that The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part would end up fourth, and that Green Book would be eighth – both of which proved accurate! We were also right in thinking that it was the end of the line for Alita: Battle Angel, which has now slipped out of the charts. The Kid Who Would Be King) held on to tenth place, in line with our expectations!
What’s happening at the UK Box Office this week?
Only two new films are receiving wide releases at over 300 UK cinemas this weekend, Ralph Fiennes’s the White Crow and Jordan Peele’s Us. Justin Baldoni’s Five Feet Apart is the next biggest release, appearing on over 100 screens across the country.
In 2017 Peele’s Get Out opened to £2,160,099 at the UK box office. If Us opens to similar numbers it wouldn’t challenge Captain Marvel (which brought in £6,643,217 last weekend) for top spot but should see it open strongly in second place.
It’s trickier to gauge where Five Feet Apart may land as has received pretty poor reviews (it’s got a rotten splat on Rotten Tomatoes, scoring 53%). Our feeling is that it may do as well as third because of the intriguing subject matter (it’s been described as a cystic fibrosis teen romance drama) and the generally poor performance of most films currently at the UK box office. Only two films made over a million pounds last weekend (Captain Marvel and Fisherman’s Friends) compared to four last year. In other words – there’s not much competition!
A low marketing campaign for White Crow, combined with the fact that most of its screenings seem to be at arthouse cinemas, suggests to us that it’s not going to get much higher than seventh – but we wouldn’t be shocked if it debuted lower than this.
Weekend Box Office Predictions: Top 10 UK Films, Top 10 films March 22-24
1. Captain Marvel
3. Five Feet Apart
4. Fisherman’s Friends
5. What Men Want
6. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
7. White Crow
8. Fighting With My Family
9. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
10. Green Book
A Quick Note On Our UK Box Office Predictions…
These UK box office predictions are complete guesses from the Fantasy Film League team! We have no insider studio connections and we base our predictions on cinema screening estimates and data from past film performances.
Don’t forget these are the UK predictions and we use the US Top Ten as well for our Fantasy Film League game. While they can be similar there are always differences!
What do you think of our predictions? Let us know by tweeting @FLL.
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